Evaluating the labour market impacts of welfare benefits in Scotland and across the UK

This research aims to evaluate how welfare benefits affect labour market outcomes among disabled people, individuals with long-term health conditions and carers using causal inference methods.

Across the UK, many people remain economically inactive because of long-term health conditions, disabilities or caring responsibilities. In Scotland, as elsewhere in the UK, these groups face persistent barriers to employment and are at greater risks of poverty across the life course. These trends have far-reaching implications for labour market participation, economic growth, productivity and the long-term sustainability of the welfare system.

Project aims

• Assess the impact of the rollout of Personal Independence Payment (PIP) on labour market trajectories over time across the UK
• Identify how changes to the earnings threshold for Carer’s Allowance affect labour market outcomes among claimants across the UK
• Evaluate the impacts of devolved Scottish benefits, such as the Adult Disability Payment, Carer Support Payment and the Scottish Child Payment, on benefit receipt and labour market participation
• Examine how these outcomes vary across key groups and compare with trends in the rest of the UK

The data

We will use data from the new UK-wide Registration and Population Interaction Database (RAPID), a person-level longitudinal dataset linking benefits and related service information held by the Department for Work and Pensions (DWP) with employment and earnings records from HM Revenue & Customs (HMRC).

Research team

Dr Serena Pattaro (Project Lead), Dr Aizhan Kyzayeva, Dr Richard Shaw, Professor Vittal Katikireddi and Professor Nick Bailey

Publications, outputs and media coverage

• September 2026 - Summary Report: Evidencing the wider impacts of the Scottish Child Payment: challenges and opportunities for data, research and practice 
• March 2026 - Scottish Child Payment Event Summary